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Behind Pyongyang's Nuclear Strategy


Article # : 12140 

Section : CURRENT ISSUES
Issue Date : 3 / 1994  2,691 Words
Author : Selig S. Harrison
Selig S. Harrison, a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has specialized in South Asian affairs and American policy problems in Asia for forty years as a foreign correspondent and author. He served as AP correspondent in New Delhi from 1951 to 1954, returning as South Asia bureau chief of the Washington Post from 1962 to 1965, and Northeast Asia bureau chief from 1968 to 1972. A former managing editor of the New Republic, he has served as senior fellow in charge of Asian studies at the Brookings Institution, senior fellow at the East-West Center, and professional lecturer in Asian studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

       By Selig S. Harrison In 1992, Selig S. Harrison, a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, led a delegation that was the first to report Pyongyang had reprocessed plutonium. In 1992, Selig S. Harrison, a senior associate of the Cranegie Endowment for International Peace, led a delegation that was the first to report Pyongyang had processed plutonium.

       "Yes, we have slain a large dragon," CIA Director James Woolsey said in his Senate confirmation hearing last year, "but we live now in a jungle filled with a bewildering variety of poisonous snakes."

       Woolsey singled out North Korea as a prime example of the malignant forces that confront the United States in the aftermath of the Cold War. In the black-and-white world that he described, countries are inherently good or evil. The Kim Il Sung regime is by its nature evil, a monolithic polity in which there are no policy struggles within the leadership over what the country should do and no rivalries among competing interest groups and power elites.

       Is this a realistic way of looking at Pyongyang? Such a grossly oversimplified approach would make it impossible for South Korea, the United States, and Japan to achieve the goal of a nuclear-free Korea or promote economic and political liberalization in the North. Although the power structure in Pyongyang is indeed monolithic, an increasingly sharp policy conflict within the ruling Workers Party has become apparent during the past five years, especially over the issue of whether the North should continue to pursue the nuclear option. Pyongyang's strategy in negotiations with the United States over the nuclear issue can only be understood in the context of this conflict.

       On one side in the Pyongyang debate are pragmatists and technocrats with some experience of the outside world who have long argued that a changing international environment requires major changes in North Korean policy. These leaders have recognized that the end of Soviet and Chinese subsidies would bring economic hardship with potentially destabilizing political consequences.

       To preserve the regime, they have advocated a twofold reform program: first, a significant opening of the economy to increase export earnings and attract largescale inputs of capital and technology from the South, the United States, and Japan, especially through export-oriented special zones similar to those in China; and second, efforts to reduce defense spending through arms-and force-reduction agreements with the South. Above all, they have called for suspension or termination of the nuclear weapons program as a prerequisite for getting external economic help. ... Read Full Article


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