Cuban dictator Fidel Castro recently marked the 35th anniversary of the revolution that brought him to power with a defiant call for a defense of the socialist policies that have ruined the Cuban economy and isolated his country. Speaking on January 1 in the eastern city of Santiago de Cuba, Castro asserted that the revolution had successfully defended itself against what he labeled the "imperial power"--the United States--and would continue to do so. By rejecting any meaningful political or economic reforms, Castro has guaranteed the downfall of his regime. Seven scenarios
A close analysis of the Cuban situation clearly indicates that the communist regime's days are numbered. The reasons are many: Castro's stubborn defense of socialism and authoritarian rule; a shortage of hard-currency reserves, with only between $10 and $15 million left in the coffers; an economy that has shrunk by at least 75 percent over the last two years; new tensions within the military; and a populace that strives for freedom and entrepreneurship. The Clinton administration must begin to prepare for the inevitable transformation of Cuban society.
Regardless of how Castro's government falls, the United States must be ready to respond. Several scenarios are possible. They are listed here with a probability rating of 1(low) to 5 (high).
Scenario 1: Cuban military or intelligence forces launch a coup (probability 4 to 5). Beneath the top layer of Castro loyalists, there are many younger and better-educated technocrats increasingly eager to open Cuba to the outside world. This growing segment of Cuban society poses the most serious threat to Castro's power. Moreover, morale in the armed forces has reached an all-time low. Defecting pilots often complain that military officers are excluded from the newly legal dollar economy and other perks that are dispensed to Communist Party officials, thereby turning integral members of the island's elite into second-class citizens.
Ousting Castro and his inner circle would enable officers in the Cuban military or intelligence services to distance themselves from the regime's crimes and blunders. Such a coup, however, would have to be a sudden action carried out by a small group, rather than an elaborately organized conspiracy. The reason: Castro's extensive counterintelligence capabilities likely would detect the coup early on. Nevertheless, Cuba's isolation, the fall of international communism, and growing anti-Castro sentiment in Cuba would give this scenario a high probability rating of between 4 and 5.
Scenario 2: Food riots, demonstrations, and strikes lead to a spontaneous anti-Castro revolt (probability 4).
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