The counterargument was that, while there had indeed been an alteration, a quantum expansion of conflict had also taken place to the extent that we should reorient our military, not contract it. Before the bipolar world of the 1945-1989 era collapsed, the average number of wars per year was between 32 and 35. These contests were mainly spin-offs of the confrontation generated by the Soviets and the Americans, plus a few random conflicts.

       Now, in 1994, with the United States the sole superpower, the conflict count has risen to 63 per year. Emerging and hidden vectors of yet future imbroglios and conflagrations are rocketing toward an intersection that may raise the count.

       Four years ago, John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene stated in their book Megatrends Two Thousand that there would be a reduction in conflict. Four years later, after the dust has settled from the fall of the Berlin Wall, Alvin and Heidi Tofller outline in their book War: Anti-war a future far different from these wildly optimistic and erroneous views.

       The Tofflers dissect conflict, then analyze how to cope with it in a realistic way. This realism reflects an open-mindedness that translates into solutions. It is one that conveys the old adage "Forewarned is forearmed" and the idea that just disarming is not the way to go to enhance America's security.

       Yet, in President Clinton's present military budget, personnel strength will be cut from the pre-Gulf War figure of 2.1 million to as low as 1.4 million by 1997. The Army's active divisions would go from 14 to 10. The Air Force would slip from 28 fighter wings to 20. The Navy would be slashed from 440 ships with 14 aircraft carriers down to 340 ships with 12 aircraft carriers. Military spending would go down from $302 billion in 1990 to about $233 billion in 1997. This will occur without a reorientation of the military to this changing scenario of increased conflict.

       THE DANGEROUS CENTURY