To many inside and outside South Africa, the venerable African National Congress is a shoo-in as the next South African government. (So sure has been the ANC of its own future that one of its autobiographies is titled South Africa Belongs to Us.) Indeed, it would take a political disaster to prevent a victory for the ANC in a one-person, one-vote election. It has always far outscored its main rival, the Inkatha Freedom Party, in national opinion polls. The ANC enjoys wide support among moderate South Africans, both black and white: Over the years, it has come to embody their hopes and aspirations. For them, there is no alternative.
I would argue that the same is true for the rest of the world: There is simply no viable alternative to an ANC-led government in South Africa, whether it be a coalition or winner-take-all. No other organization has the popular legitimacy to carry off the hard choices facing South Africa. Denying this out of disagreement with the ANC's ideological orientation (usually misinterpreted as "socialist") diverts attention from a more important issue: A politically weak South African government is in no one's interest, whatever one may think of the ruling party's outlook; it can lead only to chaos and further economic decline throughout the region.
Opposing the ANC because of its modest redistributive goals without considering the alternatives is worse than counterproductive. Interested outside parties would do much better to pay close attention to the ANC and to offer constructive support where possible. Were it elected today, an ANC government would almost certainly be weak. Given the stakes, it is worth looking carefully at why this is so.
EXILE AND INTERNAL POLITICS
In 1987, Neil Barnard, then head of the South African National Intelligence Service, produced a secret government discussion paper that argued that the ANC was unbeatable as long as it remained in exile. A legalized ANC, on the other hand, could be forced into protracted negotiations, which would weaken its popular support as it was being forced into one compromise after another. The ANC could then be forced into a coalition government, further undermining its support and dividing the South African electorate. This would paralyze the government and make it easier to maintain the economic status quo until black politicians could become used to the comforts of power.
Among other things, Barnard's radical concept was motivated by the fact that, at the time, the ANC was almost universally regarded as the driving force of a civil war against the National Party (NP) government, as well as the latter's logical successor. Indeed, the ANC thrived on its image
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