As rumors increase about the decline of Deng Xiaoping's health, the problem of succession begins to brew in Chinese politics. The deathwatch demonstrates that in a communist country two sure things--death and the struggle for power--cannot be separated. Who will succeed Deng, the paramount leader who has ruled the most populous nation in the world for the last 14 years? It is the question of the hour. Which of the two major factions--the reformers or the conservatives--will prevail? Will the new communist leadership be as skillful as Deng has been in balancing economic liberalization and political totalitarianism?
The answers to these and other questions about China's future lie, as so much about China does, in the past. Analysis must begin with the handful of octogenarians who still control the government and Communist Party behind the scenes.
These old communists began their revolutionary careers in the 1920s and '30s. Over a period of more than half a century, they took charge of various key positions and built up their power and influence in the military, political, economic, and ideological fields.
Since China opened up to the outside world at the end of the 1970s, and especially after the Tiananmen tragedy and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the controversies and conflicts among the old guard have increased. These power struggles are central to the future development of the People's Republic.
There have been eight "patronage networks," or blocs, headed by Deng Xiaoping, Chen Yun, Li Xianian, Peng Zheng, Bo Yibo, Deng Yingcao, Yang Shangkung, and Wang Zheng. The leaders' ages total more than 680. Three of the eight died during the past year: Li Xianian (a former president), Deng Yingcao (the widow of late Premier Zhou Enlai), and Wang Zheng (a former vice president).
Although it is difficult to diagram the relationships of the current patronage networks, the groups can be divided into two major camps: the reformist, headed by Deng Xiaoping, and the conservative, headed by Chen Yun. It must be kept in mind that both camps are communist in terms of ideology and political power.
SUPPORTERS OF REFORM
As a successor of Mao and the general designer of China's reform, Deng became a paramount leader after the fall of the Gang of Four in the late 1970s. He enjoyed a high level of prestige and built up a solid power base in the party, government, and military. His position was supported by most Chinese.
Deng is a reformer and pragmatist who greatly changed Mao's theory and policies bearing his label. Deng
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