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Introduction: Japan's New Face
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11020 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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11 / 1993 |
550 Words |
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After decades of continuous prosperity and stability, Japan is experiencing a series of economic and political shocks that are shaking its foundations.
Economically, Japanese growth is stalled, the Nikkei average has fallen 63 percent since its peak in 1989, and banks are struggling with bad debts. Politically, a new reform coalition holds the reins of government following the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party after nearly four decades in power.
Long-term trends, including an aging population and a reduction in its technological advantages over other nations, suggest continuing economic problems for Japan. It also remains to be seen whether the long-entrenched bureaucracy will move quickly enough to satisfy the public's demand for more consumerism and democracy.
How serious and synergistic are these crises? Will the new coalition government be able to bring about needed reforms? Japan has overcome enormous challenges since World War II but must now adjust to a post-Cold War world without, for example, an ever-expanding U.S. market and Asian neighbors it can dominate.
The Japanese people have calmly accepted the new coalition government, according to political analyst Ronald A. Morse, because it is not made up of revolutionaries but seasoned, centrist politicians. The reformers have approximately one year to prove their ability to rule before a general election is expected to be held.
No one can be certain whether the coalition will succeed, says Morse, but if it implements just 60 percent of its reform program, the Japanese political landscape will never be the same again.
Three major factors are shaping the Japanese economy, argues William V. Rapp of the University of Victoria in British Columbia: the ability of management to handle change, the impact of the "bubble," and the country's aging population. He estimates that although its growth in the 1990s will be only 2.5-3.5 percent annually, Japan will continue to dominate key global industries.
Both Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa and President Bill Clinton came to power stressing change. If both leaders seize the opportunity to bring about mutually beneficial changes, predicts John E. Endicott of the Georgia Institute of Technology, a new era of positive relations between the two
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