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The Three Rivals of the World Economy
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21900 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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7 / 1993 |
2,449 Words |
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Julian Weiss
Julian Weiss, a Washington, D.C., correspondent for Japan
Journal, travels to Asia and the Caribbean on writing
assignments. |
The United States, Germany, and Japan are often contrasted as to economic performance, and, indeed, many Establishment pundits have proclaimed America to be a distant third compared to the pair of "glamour" economies. "We've [got] to be more like them," admonished author James Fallows in 1991.
Yet recent trends show contrarians were correct when they insisted the picture was far more gray than black and white. Those who sought to emulate Germany and Japan ignored a cultural dimension that influences the way countries do business.
The three superpowers are inextricably interlocked and buy so many products from each other that downturns in one of them reverberate across the Atlantic and the Pacific alike. These three are forming distinct regional trading blocs, and each of the trio shapes world commerce in countless ways. To achieve a fair comparison and assessment of each one's progress, it is worth examining their respective strengths and weaknesses. Although their inherent economic strengths are based on historical and cultural factors, the three face common problems.
JAPAN'S GREAT RETREAT
As dusk descends across Tokyo's glittering Ginza shopping and entertainment district, there is less enthusiasm for late-night carousing than in recent years. Traffic along Yokohama's famous loading docks--where countless billions in exported goods flow toward foreign shores--is not as brisk as in the 1980s. Toyota can only fill three- fourths of projected job openings this year. Executives at Matsushita, Minolta, and other "household word" multinationals are taking pay cuts. From Osaka's industrial belt to the high-tech corridors along Kyushu Island, companies are extending free time to their employees, in hopes of keeping them at stores longer (so they will buy more).
Recession for the long haul. GNP will reach a paltry 3 percent in 1993, far below the 7 percent annual growth rates of yesteryear. "Senior managers did not really understand what was happening around them," insists a veteran analyst at the government's Economic Planning Agency (EPA). "Almost all major industries started declining halfway through 1991," he recalls.
Now, Japan joins other industrial countries trying to jumpstart their economies. In the process, it is testing Western strategies to rescue its "miracle" economy. Traditional policies-- ranging from lifetime employment to
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