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| Resources |
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The Future of Russia
| Article
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10208 |
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Section : |
EDITORIAL
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| Issue
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8 / 1993 |
626 Words |
| Author
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Morton A. Kaplan
Editor and Publisher |
The special report in Current Issues this month, "Russia: Is Reform Still Possible?" deals with an issue that is of exceptional importance to the United States and the Western world. Instability at the heart of Europe could produce many small wars and economic turmoil, while stability and the rescue of the Russian economy could play a significant role in economic development worldwide and at home. Yet, polling data consistently show large majorities against substantial assistance.
The reasons for the lack of support lie in the end of the Cold War and the needs of the domestic economy. In 1947, the year the Marshall Plan was proposed, the Cold War had not yet captured public attention, despite the Truman Doctrine and Churchill's earlier speech at Fulton, Missouri. Also, the economy was in a parlous state and at the center of national attention. Yet strong presidential leadership saved the day.
There are, however, substantial differences between the two situations. The United States is not the sole possible succor as it was in the earlier situation. Thus, the urgency for our action is not clearly perceived. Furthermore, although this does not influence the public debate, it is harder to make the intellectual case for assistance. Although the economies of France and Italy were so bad that the threat of communist electoral takeover or insurrection was not hallucinogenic, the economies in hindsight were poised to take off and the infrastructure that would permit this was in place. Thus, the assistance would be well used and would benefit the American economy as well as preclude Soviet dominance of Western Europe.
Neither of the latter conditions appears to hold in Russia. Furthermore, extremely strong entrenched elements exist whose interests are threatened by immediate reform, however much they may recognize the need for economic reform in principle. Thus, neither the threat nor the potential for success is as pronounced as in the case of the Marshall Plan. Yet, even though the case for assistance to Russia is less certain, and its prospects riskier, it is genuinely impressive.
Whether the case for support remains viable will depend upon the skill with which President Boris Yeltsin mobilizes support for constitutional and economic reform. Some wish he had used the referendum to impose a new constitution and the economic plans of his radical reformers. However, he is a pragmatic politician, and he has brought within his team elements that are opposed to rapid economic reform.
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