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Iran: Renewed Threat in the Persian Gulf?
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10107 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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4 / 1993 |
3,144 Words |
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Shireen T. Hunter
Shireen T. Hunter is senior visiting fellow at the Center for
European Policy Studies in Brussels, Belgium. |
It's been two years since the end of the Persian Gulf War and a satisfactory solution to the Iraq problem still eludes the international community. Worse, new sources of tension and potentially serious threats to regional stability loom on the horizon.
Some of these tensions derive from disputes among the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are embroiled in a border dispute that threatens the cohesion and unity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Other tensions derive from Arab-Iranian differences, such as the resurrection of a claim by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) against Iran for the three Persian Gulf islands of Abu Musa.
Many observers, however, do not view these disputes, as the main threat to Persian Gulf stability. Rather, according to many political circles and regional and international press--most notably that of the United States--the real menace both to Persian Gulf security and to the interests of the West and its regional allies is posed by an economically and militarily resurgent Iran, which observers believe harbors ambitions of regional domination.
Indicators of Iran's military resurgence are its purchase of three Soviet-made submarines and its allocation of $10 billion for defense over a five-year period. Iran's military resurgence is especially disturbing in view of what is believed to be a determined Iranian effort to develop nuclear weapons.
The Iranian threat, however, is not limited to the Persian Gulf. Several Middle Eastern and North African countries, especially those challenged by fundamentalist Islamic opposition forces (notably Egypt and Algeria), see Iran as the main culprit. Egypt has openly accused Iran of being behind all its recent troubles, especially in using Sudan as a base to destabilize Egypt. There is also strong suspicion that Iran is helping the Islamic movement (Hamas) in the occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip and that it maintains close ties with the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Yes, despite the widespread unease about Iran, there is no agreement regionally or internationally, including in the United States, about the seriousness or the geographical reach of the Iranian threat.
Iran's support of the Lebanese Hezbollah and its opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace process, however, are legitimate causes for concern. Also, earlier expectations about a dramatic
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