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Bush vs. Clinton: Who Will It Be?
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20557 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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11 / 1992 |
4,454 Words |
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Lee Edwards
Lee Edwards is senior editor for the Current Issues section
of THE WORLD & I. His latest book is The Power of Ideas: The
Heritage Foundation at Twenty-five. |
On November 3, Democrats may at last end an era of divided government in America and put one of their own in the White House for only the second time in the last seven presidential elections.
They have a lot going for them: an attractive, articulate nominee in Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas; a united Democratic Party; a dissatisfied and even angry electorate; a sympathetic news media; plenty of money; and an organization that has learned, after carefully studying the Republican successes of the 1980s, how to run a national campaign.
The Democratic cause may be helped by billionaire Ross Perot, who is on the ballot in all 50 states and seems to the ballot in all 50 states and seems to attract more Republicans than Democrats, as in Texas.
A major question mark in determining the November outcome is the extreme volatility of the electorate, whose likes and dislikes have veered wildly all year long. Clinton was 10 points behind President Bush in April, before he won the New York Democratic primary. Pollster Richard Wirthlin cautions that never have "poll numbers be [en] as poor a predictor" as in this election.
Continuity vs. change
Every presidential election is a referendum on continuity versus change, and in 1992 Clinton is presenting himself as the candidate who will change the economy, unemployment, health care, the environment, education--you name it--for the better. More than 20 years younger than his opponent, Clinton argues that he is tomorrow and his opponent is yesterday.
There is no denying that the governor from Arkansas is drawing from a deep well of American discontent. Since the two party conventions, almost every national poll has given him a lead of 10 points or more over his Republican opponent. Most experts agree that if Clinton remains that far ahead going into the last two weeks of the campaign, it will be almost impossible to catch him.
Republicans like to point out that in 1948 Harry Truman trailed by eight points on Labor Day but won by four while Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Gerald Ford in 1976 made up as much ground as George Bush must if he wants to stay in the White House. They do not like to be reminded that both Humphrey and Ford
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