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Introduction: 1992: A Watershed Election
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20553 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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11 / 1992 |
599 Words |
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Editor
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Although not seen as such only a few months ago, 1992 is likely to be a watershed year in American politics. Consider:
·A billionaire businessman who has never before run for public office leads in the presidential polls and winds up on the ballot in all 50 states as an Independent.
·Over 100 members of the next House of Representatives will be new faces.
·Women will break the Senate's glass ceiling and at least triple their number in the upper house.
·Democrats are poised to end an era of divided government and place one of their own in the White House for only the second time in the last seven elections.
These events constitute a seminal shift in U.S. politics. They are driven by a public fearful of the future, resentful about the past, and fed up with politics, and politicians, as usual.
Every election is a referendum on continuity versus change, and in 1992 the American electorate is clearly voting for new ideas and voices from the White House to the Congress.
In the lead article of this month's Special Report, our Current Issues senior editor, Lee Edwards, suggest that challenger Bill Clinton, drawing from a deep well of public discontent, is on the brink of defeating incumbent George Bush for the presidency. Clinton leads Bush in four of the five basic elements that determine a campaign: money, organization, the candidate, issues, and the media.
In the end, argues Edwards, the outcome of the presidential campaign will depend on whether voters believe the risk of change under Clinton is greater than the need for change from Bush. In the final weeks of a very volatile year, a majority of voters were prepared to take a chance on change and vote for Clinton.
A clear indication of how much congressional politics has changed can be seen in the House of Representatives, where only two years ago 98.5 percent of all members seeking reelection won. In 1992, because of public disgust with their massive check kiting and exorbitant pay raises, incumbents are running for their political lives.
Political analyst John Gizzi estimates there could be as many as 125 new House members, with Republicans reaching
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