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What Limits for Japan?
| Article
# : |
20415 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
3 / 1992 |
2,182 Words |
| Author
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Ronald A. Morse
Ronald A. Morse is president of Annapolis International and
adjunct professor of international business at the Fletcher
School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He is the
author of over a dozen books on Japan and Asia. |
The 1990s are going to be a period of ambivalence, balancing, and transition for Japan. It will also be a period of testing in which Japan will either make the transition to becoming a responsible world leader respected and admired or fail and become the common enemy. Tokyo's remarkable economic performance, coupled with the end of the Cold War and the surge of economic dynamism in Asia, make the prospects for its successful transition very good. However, if Japan fails, it will not be due to unfavorable circumstances.
As long as the Cold War continued and Asia was divided into communist and capitalist blocs, Japan had few options. The overwhelming presence of America in Japan's calculations has kept Japan under the U.S nuclear and political tent, restricting Tokyo's options. Recent events, however, have created a whole new set of circumstances that increase both Japan's options and its ambivalence about how to proceed.
The Cold war's conclusion was perhaps the most fortuitous thing that could have happened for Japan in many ways. It removed the Soviet threat; relaxed the significance of the U.S. Japan security framework, shifted global concern from strategic to economic issues, and provided Tokyo the opportunity to selectively distance itself from Washington.
Many Asian leaders view the current turn of events with anxiety, being concerned about the prospect of a more assertive Japan cut free of American dominance. This concern was brought to President Bush's attention during his visits to Australia, Singapore, and Korea in January. Nevertheless, these concerns must be balanced the positive prospect that now, with greater global opportunities, Japan will be freer to move outside the region, taking pressure off of U.S-Japanese competition in Asia and allowing Japan to have easier relations with Russia, Europe and communist neighbors China and North Korea.
The direction Japan takes in the years ahead will be shaped by a number of factors, the three most important being (1) the continuity of America's overseas military and economic growth (2) the growth of Japan's economy, which will permit it to remain an engine of growth for the world economy; and (3) the ability of Tokyo's political elite to articulate a vision for Japan. Even though the Japanese are energized by the end of the Cold War, they have still not weaned themselves from American leadership sufficiently to see their way clear to a new vision for the world. There are, nevertheless, clear signs that they are thinking about it. They have doubts about
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