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Transportation and Communication
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20225 |
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Section : |
SPECIAL SECTION
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| Issue
Date : |
1 / 1992 |
3,250 Words |
| Author
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S. Fred Singer
S. Fred Singer, Visiting Eminent Scholar at George Mason
University and former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite
Program, is a pioneer in unmanned space science. His early
work included study of primary cosmic radiation and the
discovery of the equatorial "elctrojet" current in the Earth's
ionosphere. He also proposed to NASA the manned mission to
Phobos and Deimos now referred to as the Ph-D Project. |
Transportation and communication are basic human activities today and fulfill basic human needs. Their rapid expansion and diversification in the twentieth century have been the most visible of the changes that have taken place during this time. How will emerging technologies further develop and affect transportation and communication in the next century? It is logical to first discuss future needs (the demand) for transportation and communication services before delving into the supply side, which is conditioned by new transportation technology.
Future Demand
Can we expect significant breakthroughs in transportation and communication--comparable to what has happened in this century--besides the ongoing spread of existing technologies? It is this question that we want to address in this essay.
It is convenient to divide the discussion into three parts: the transportation of goods, the transportation of people, and the conveyance of information. Historically, it is likely that the transportation of goods preceded the transportation of people. In former times, people did not travel for leisure as we do today, nor did they have to commute to work. (Whole populations migrating in search of food or in the herding of animals, etc., cannot be considered under transportation as we understand it.) Similarly, the conveyance of detailed information over long distances and short time spans had to await at least the invention of writing.
Transportation of goods. In this regard, for reasons of clarity, we shall maintain a necessary distinction between point-to-point transportation, which involves movement of goods in large bulk, and distribution, which entails transporting goods in relatively smaller quantities from one or more central points to a larger number of outlets.
As far as point-to-point transportation is concerned, the present modes would seem to be adequate. For example, petroleum constitutes one of the most important bulk materials in world trade, and can be transported at lowest cost by pipelines over land, barges over rivers and canals, and tankers over oceans. (Pipelines are the only means that permit continuous transportation; other modes must transport materials in batches.)
Other raw materials of commerce--such as coal, lumber, sand, gravel, and such--are also transported in bulk. Traditional modes of overland transportation are
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