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A Land of Empty Abundance?
| Article
# : |
20220 |
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Section : |
SPECIAL SECTION
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| Issue
Date : |
1 / 1992 |
3,699 Words |
| Author
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Jerry E. Pournelle
Jerry E. Pournelle is lecturer, consultant, social critic,
and author of more that 20 books, including Footfall
Lucifer's Hammer, and The Endless Frontier. He is also an
editor and columnist for Byte and Infoworld magazine. A past
president of the Science Fiction Writers of America,
Pournelle resides in Studio City, California. |
People often assume that science fiction writers can predict the future. While some of us sometimes pretend to do that, the reality is that no one can predict the future. What "futurists" from Bertrand de Jouvenal (Futuribles) to pulp science fiction writers do is describe a plausible future: one they believe could be, or, at worst, one they can make you believe could be.
Such projections can be optimistic or pessimistic, and can take into account various trends--or ignore them. I choose the "cautiously optimistic" scenario as it fits well with my personal view of the world: Things do get better, sometimes a lot better, but for every several steps forward there is at least one step back, and a couple sideways.
With that in mind, let's examine where cautious optimism might take us in the year 2042.
The triumph of technology
One trend is clear, both from the projections of scientists, and from scientific literature: Technology improves by leaps and bounds, and material wealth flows in abundance. For much of the world things are getting better. People live longer, eat better, and have more material possessions; and where they do not, the failure stems from political rather than technological reasons.
Indeed, it is clear to me that by 2042 we will certainly have the technical capability to supply every person on Earth with material possessions equivalent, at least, to what the average American enjoyed in, say, 1940; and this, without undue strain.
There is no energy shortage if we don't want there to be one. Despite the popular myth, no responsible official ever said that nuclear power plants would make electricity 'too cheap to meter'; but it is true that Japan and France are greatly reducing the energy costs for their citizens by constructing nuclear power plants, and other countries are following suit. There are some dangers to nuclear power, but they are not insurmountable.
In addition to nuclear power plants, there are various forms of solar power. These include Ocean Thermal (OTEC), which has been successfully demonstrated off the Kona Coast of Hawaii; ground based solar; and Space Solar Power Satellites (SSPS). OTEC works well but can only be built in areas fairly remote from where the power is needed. Ground based solar power is too
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