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Tracking Nuclear Ambitions


Article # : 20054 

Section : CURRENT ISSUES
Issue Date : 12 / 1992  3,259 Words
Author : Peter D. Zimmerman
Nuclear physicist Peter D. Zimmerman is senior fellow in arms control and verification at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former technical adviser to the U.S. delegation to the START talks.

       Six nations have nuclear weapons with launch capability. The United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, and China have well-developed nuclear arsenals, proven over decades of testing. Despite years of studied ambiguity, few doubt that Israel also possesses a nuclear arsenal. If rumors of French assistance are correct, it is possible that the Israelis have at least some knowledge of the construction of hydrogen bombs. Either way, Israel has never detonated a nuclear device on or under its own territory.
       
        India exploded a single nuclear device in May 1974 and has refrained from full-scale experimentation since then. India contended its test device was for "peaceful" purposes, but the only functional differences between a "peaceful nuclear explosive device"--used for creating artificial reservoirs or cutting channels through mountains--and a nuclear bomb are the tail fins. India is a nuclear power.
       
        In recent years it has become clear that Pakistan has constructed one or more nuclear weapons, although the Pakistanis have chosen not to conduct a full-scale test of their designs. Pakistani scholar and military analyst Shireen Mazarri last year remarked in Hamburg, Germany--to a stunned meeting of students of proliferation--that her nation had a nuclear stockpile, that it had a well-developed doctrine for the use of its stockpile, and, most disturbing of all, that the nuclear release codes and authorization were not in the charge of the civilian government but rather in the sole control of the Pakistani armed forces.
       
        Many other nations undoubtedly have the capability to make nuclear weapons in short order--weeks or months at most. In the late 1950s and early '60s, Sweden walked to the nuclear threshold and then turned back. According to Swedish investigative journalist Christer Larsson, before Sweden renounced its nuclear ambitions in 1968 its scientists had completed several surprisingly sophisticated designs, had conducted the necessary high-explosive tests needed to develop a nuclear detonation system, and had imploded gram-sized quantities of plutonium. The Swedish program was encouraged and supervised by the then fairly junior minister Olof Palme, later to make a career of opposing nuclear weapons, particularly those owned by the United States.
       
        Today Sweden is certainly out of the nuclear weapons business and a staunch supporter of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Unfortunately, this may not hinder Swedish-based firms from under-the-table deals to sell dual-use equipment to nations that still dream nuclear
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