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Politics, Race, and the 1992 Campaign
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19987 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
8 / 1992 |
3,279 Words |
| Author
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Allan C. Brownfeld
Allan C. Brownfeld is a Washington-based journalist and the
author of five books, the latest of which is The Revolution
Lobby (with J. Michael Waller). He is also associate editor
of The Lincoln Review. |
Events during the presidential campaign primary season, the Los Angeles riots among them, and the appearance of independent candidate Ross Perot, have altered the political landscape in a dramatic manner and have challenged the strategies for the 1992 election of all the candidates. Whatever the accepted political wisdom was at the start of the primary season, today certainty is no place to be found. There is no available road map for the terrain we are approaching.
In the case of black voters, 1992 may be a key election year. Blacks have been the most loyal Democrats in recent years and in the three-man presidential race now taking shape, it is essential that Bill Clinton receive all-out black support if he is to have any chance of winning. Thus far, declares Rep. Charles Rangel (D-New York), a key member of the Congressional Black Caucus, "he hasn't won their hearts. The Rev. Jesse Jackson, discussing Perot's entry into the race, said that it "makes all voters more valuable . . . not taken for granted."
In the primaries, black turnout was disproportionately low. While Clinton is far ahead among blacks in public opinion polls, he is short of the high percentage--between 80 and 90 percent--that Democrats have come to rely upon. In fact, a national ABC News poll gave Clinton only 48 percent support among black voters. President Bush and Perot each drew about 20 percent. A Time/CNN poll gave Clinton 60 percent, Perot 13, and Bush 10.
Democratic pollster Harrison Hickman declares that "Clinton has not yet consolidated the black vote." He argues that the widespread apathy among black voters may doom the Clinton candidacy. He states: "First, you could have core Democrats like blacks not excited. Then you could have marginal white voters (those who don't always vote) excited about Perot. So you could have high turnout--but low black turnout."
New York Post columnist Deborah Orin point out that the irony of the current situation is that "it was trendy in Democratic circles just last fall to argue that the party's dependence on black support--and focus on issues like affirmative action--had alienated whites and made it impossible for Democrats ever to win a majority. Now, in a three-way race, Democrats don't need a majority--and energized black voters could easily be the key to victory. If black voters can somehow be energized again."
The bitter and divisive debate over the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the U.S. Supreme Court has
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