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Grand Bargain or Grand Illusion?
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19694 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
9 / 1991 |
2,740 Words |
| Author
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Marshall I. Goldman
Marshall I. Goldman is Kathryn W. Davis Professor of Soviet
Economics at Wellesley College and associate director of the
Russian Research Center at Harvard University. His forthcoming
book, What Went Wrong with Perestroika, will be published by
W.W. Norton. |
No one questions any longer whether the United States should help the Soviets. The big query now is how much?
It is the answer that is still in dispute. This fact reflects the widespread appreciation for what Mikhail Gorbachev has done to make the Soviet Union both a more humane society and a less confrontational force on the world stage. It also reflects a realization that it is probably no longer in our interest to see the Soviet Union in chaos.
In the pre-Gorbachev era, many of us could think of nothing better for the world than to see the Soviet Union fall apart at the seams. But now that the Soviet Union has become so benign, there is good reason to worry that a chaotic Soviet Union might actually jeopardize rather than facilitate the peace process. Each day, it becomes harder to determine whether outside aid, no matter how large, can help. Moreover, given the growing pressures for separatism that are sweeping the Soviet Union, it is no longer so clear that a united Soviet Union is necessarily a stable Soviet Union. After what has happened in Yugoslavia, it may well be that a Soviet Union that splits apart peacefully may be more stable than one that is help together forcibly. Unfortunately, no one knows how the Soviet Union can split apart peacefully.
Undoubtedly those in charge of American foreign policy would prefer to deal with a unified Soviet Union. Given our fears of nuclear proliferation, all the world needs is for 15 Soviet republics to become 15 nuclear powers, yet what form the Soviet Union takes is ultimately a decision that must be made by the people themselves. Given the ethnic passions that are now sweeping the eastern part of Europe, we are likely to see more separatism, not less. This complicates our task.
Nor does it help that many Russians have traditionally distrusted foreign interference in their affairs, particularly when it comes from the West and the United States. Given their longer-standing xenophobia, there is a danger that our aid, whatever its size, will become a part of the debate. If possible we should strive to help, not hinder, the process. In an environment where the periphery is becoming more important than the center, that requires not only careful thought but a willingness to let the Soviet people determine their own way.
What is to be done
Given the delicacy of the situation, perhaps the best
...
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