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The Future of Iraq and the Middle East
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19840 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
5 / 1991 |
2,742 Words |
| Author
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Peter Sluglett
Peter Sluglett is lecturer in Modern Middle Eastern History at
the University of Durham, England, and coauthor, with Marion
Farouk-Sluglett, of Iraq since 1958: from Revolution t
Dictatorship, published by I.B. Tauris (London) in December
1990 and distributed in the United States by St. Martin's
Press. |
There are so many imponderables facing future developments in the Middle East that it would be rash indeed for anyone, however close to the region, to commit himself to more than a few "maybes" and "perhapses." Furthermore, given the pace at which events are moving, the picture may have changed very markedly by the time this article reaches its readers.
Some things, however, are fairly certain. The first is that the events of the last few months have affected the Middle East to an extent comparable only with the redrawing of the map of the region after the First World War, or with the creation of Israel in 1948. Secondly, the United States is apparently more inextricably involved in the affairs of the region than at any other time this century. Finally, the next few months provide an almost unique opportunity to initiate and promote lasting peace and stability in this area. Whether this opportunity will be seized or wasted is, of course, another matter.
The war in the Gulf was never entirely inevitable, and there are various aspects of it that have intensely worrying implications. Of course it was not, or was only partially, a crusade to liberate Kuwait, laudable as that objective was. Its real purpose, which itself was also not unworthy, was to restrain and, if possible, remove an apparently overmighty Saddam Hussein, against the background of a new world context in which the Soviet Union is not in a position to make significant objections to moves of this kind initiated by the United States. One serious casualty of recent events has been the authority of the United Nations, since the episode has tended to underline that organization's domination by the United States and has damaged, at least somewhat, its reputation for neutrality and evenhandedness. In addition, the extent to which Iraq's infrastructure was destroyed, and the manner in which Iraq's retreating army was attacked, has raised questions about whether or not the U.S. military used excessive force. On the other hand, Saddam Hussein's personal responsibility for the devastation he has brought upon his own people cannot be denied; after all, he could have withdrawn from Kuwait easily.
My guess is that, unless the United States takes the entirely perverse view that it is somehow "safer" to keep him in power, Saddam Hussein's days are numbered. There really is little hope for any long-term reconciliation within Iraq or for stability in the region as a whole unless he is overthrown. Much of northern Iraq, including the Kirkuk oil fields, which account for about one-third of Iraqi oil production, is under the control of Kurdish forces, and many deserters from
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