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Introduction: The New Tripolar Economics
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19833 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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5 / 1991 |
785 Words |
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The Persian Gulf War may have ended, but an even bigger war is now brewing--a global struggle for economic preeminence. In this war not only will fortunes be won and lost but nations will rise and fall. The weapons of mass destruction are tariffs and protectionism. The warriors are the economic superpowers: the United States, Japan, and the European Community.
Each is seeking to dominate the international economic stage while protecting its own markets. The result is almost certain to be the division of the world not into East and West or North and South but into regional trade blocs that run north, south, east, and west.
Still, all wars eventually end, or do they? The new world order that the United States and its allies are building will surely deal with economic questions, or will it? What does the economic future hold for the world--a cold war of constant hostility and suspicion or a warm peace of cooperation and friendly competition?
We should recall how the United Stats, Japan, and Western Europe enjoyed their heyday of prosperity and regional dominance, reveling in fast growth, unrestrained spending, and high living standards. Inevitably, inventories built up, sales dropped, the stock market crashed, and cutthroat competition grew. Millions were unemployed and many became homeless. And when times got really tough, each nation slammed the doors of open trade and erected the walls of high tariffs to protect its home industries. That was the wild 1980s? Yes, and also the Roaring Twenties.
In this Special Report, prominent economists examine the future of the global economy in light of the emerging trade blocs and accelerating economic warfare.
Paradoxical as it may be to present an optimistic economic scenario in the middle of a recession, Murray Weidenbaum, Mallinckrod Distinguished University Professor and director of the Center for the Study of American Business at Washington University, does just that. While acknowledging the tremendous problems facing the United States, Weidenbaum believes a positive long-term outlook for the United States is justified.
Despite the high level of general decline, many key sectors of the U.S. economy are continuing to rise. With manufacturing down as a whole, the pharmaceutical, steel, paper, and telecommunications industries have continued to grow. Even agriculture is recovering from years of
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