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Global Climate Change: Fact and Fiction
| Article
# : |
19269 |
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Section : |
NATURAL SCIENCE
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| Issue
Date : |
7 / 1991 |
2,604 Words |
| Author
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S. Fred Singer
S. Fred Singer, Visiting Eminent Scholar at George Mason
University and former director of the U.S. Weather Satellite
Program, is a pioneer in unmanned space science. His early
work included study of primary cosmic radiation and the
discovery of the equatorial "elctrojet" current in the Earth's
ionosphere. He also proposed to NASA the manned mission to
Phobos and Deimos now referred to as the Ph-D Project. |
Greenhouse warming has emerged as a major issue of the 1990s. The easing of international tension with the Soviet Union could make greenhouse warming a leading foreign policy issue, along with other global environmental concerns.
Wide acceptance of the Montreal Protocol, which limits and rolls back the manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), has encouraged environmental activists--at conferences in Toronto (1988), The Hague (1989), and Geneva (1990)--to call for similar controls on carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel burning. They have expressed disappointment with the White House for not supporting immediate action.
But should the United States assume leadership in a campaign that could cripple its economy, or would it be more prudent to assure first, through scientific research, that the problem is both real and urgent?
An objective review of the best available data makes it clear that the scientific base for greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. There is little risk in delaying policy responses to this century-old problem, since there is every expectation that scientific understanding will be substantially improved within a few years.
Instead of initiating panicky, premature, and ineffective actions, which would slow down but not stop the further growth of global carbon dioxide, the United States should use the same resources--a few trillion dollars, by some estimates--to increase economic resilience so that we can apply specific remedies as necessary. This is not to say that prudent steps cannot be taken now. Indeed, many kinds of energy conservation and efficiency increases make economic sense even without the threat of greenhouse warming.
The scientific base: The IPCC report
The scientific base for greenhouse warming includes some facts, lots of uncertainty, and just plain ignorance--clearly, more observations, better theories, and more extensive calculations are required.
There is a consensus about the increase in so-called greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities in recent decades. There is some uncertainty about the strength of sources and sinks for theses gases, or, to put it differently, about their rates of generation and removal. There is major uncertainty
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