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Keeping the Peace
| Article
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18549 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
4 / 1991 |
2,340 Words |
| Author
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Robert G. Neumann
Robert G. Neumann is senior adviser of Middle East Studies at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, D.C. |
Alarmists, and there are many, predicted that the U.S. assault on Iraq would cause the Arab world to explode. This has not happened. Yet deep emotions exist among the Arab masses and especially among the Palestinians, whose unfulfilled aspiration for freedom from Israeli occupation led them to pin their hopes on Saddam Hussein as the "Arab hero" who might stand up to Israel and force a solution. This feeling also merges with a more general Arab sense of humiliation and frustration that their destiny is, once again, determined by the alien West.
It is vital that the fires of such frustration not be fed by the dismemberment of Iraq. Its continued existence as a fairly strong country is needed to balance Iran. Therefore, territorial claims by Turkey or Iran cannot be viewed with favor. Nor would it stabilize the region if the Kurds were to carve an independent state out of Iraq, a move that would radiate irredentist tendencies to the Kurdish populations of Iran, Turkey, and the Soviet Union's Caucasus region. Most borders in the Middle East are contested. No stable results would come from opening that Pandora's box.
The frustration of the Arab masses may also boil over into the violent overthrow of moderate Arab regimes unless U.S. policy opens the window to new hope. There is only one way to do that: develop a credible diplomacy aimed at peace between the Arabs and Israelis.
The noisily demonstrated Palestinian sympathy for Saddam Hussein, especially after he shot missiles into Israel, has undermined the Israeli peace camp and has made the Israelis more fearful of the dangers that an eventual Palestinian state might entail.
Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir has stated that security for Israel can come only from peace with the Arab states, not from the Palestinian people. In the past, no Arab leaders (except Egypt) could dare to negotiate with Israel without having this legitimized by PLO consent. Now, the PLO is discredited--at least for the time being. And the affiliation of the three most important Arab states--Egypt, Syria, and Saudi Arabia--with the United States and its other allies in the Gulf war has created a deep split within Arab ranks, even among Palestinians, which will last for quite a while.
A complicated map
These Arab states have come to realize that the continuation of the Palestinian problem destabilizes the entire region and thus their own
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