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Congress: Danger Signs for Incumbents
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18295 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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10 / 1990 |
2,817 Words |
| Author
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Stuart Rothenberg
Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington political analyst, is editor
and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. |
It has been almost 10 years since Ronald Reagan was swept into office with a Republican Senate. But since that election, the GOP has steadily lost ground in Congress. Democrats now hold a solid 55-45 majority in the Senate and an imposing 257-176 advantage in the House. Still, Republicans believe that 1990 is their first step toward regaining Senate control in 1992.
President Bush's popularity and an expanding economy helped GOP recruitment efforts during 1989 and the first part of 1990. But that does not guarantee Republican gains. Vulnerable open seats, the advantages of incumbency, and the off-year jinx affecting the president's party mean that the Republicans can claim victory if they merely hold their ground in the House. A souring economy would undermine their prospects.
In the Senate, the Republicans have given themselves a chance to pick up a handful of seats by recruiting experienced candidates. But Democratic senators up for reelection recognize the threat, and even those incumbents who in the past have run low-profile, low-tech races have hired top consultants and put together more elaborate campaigns. At least a half-dozen race should be extremely close, and if one party wins all of them, the final number of seat changes could be more dramatic than now anticipated.
Republican optimism about Senate races is based on an unusually strong recruiting year, as well as a relatively weak group of Democratic nonincumbents. The GOP has coaxed seven sitting congressmen, one former congressman, and one lieutenant governor into running for the 17 Democratic and 3 open seats up this fall. By contrast not a single Democratic congressman or major elected statewide official is trying to move to the Senate.
The reasons for the recruiting gap are hard to pin down. Some Republican congressmen are frustrated at their party's seemingly permanent minority status in the House, making a Senate run more appealing. Others probably surmised that Bush's popularity and another year without a recession made for a political environment favoring the GOP. Democratic strategists insist there is no single reason they lost their biggest recruiting prizes, but they admit that many democrats did not think 1990 would be the party's best year.
In the House, the Republicans probably have a slightly better class of challengers and open seat hopefuls than in the past. The Democrats have a strong group of open-seat candidates and a handful of top
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