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Mending the Shattered Horn
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16649 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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10 / 1989 |
2,736 Words |
| Author
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Michael Collins Dunn
Michael Collins Dunn is senior analyst with The International
Estimate, Inc., a Washington consultancy; Middle East editor
of The Estimate newsletter; and adjunct lecturer at the
Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. |
At a time when regional conflicts are winding down in many parts of the world, stubborn local insurgencies continue to gain ground against established governments in the Horn of Africa. In the last few months alone, in three important countries of the Horn, these insurgencies have been partly responsible for a major coup attempt, a successful coup, and the near collapse of another government (in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia, respectively). Clearly, the Horn is a region of continuing turbulence.
Events in the Horn are not monitored by most Americans or even by the U.S. press, except for humanitarian accounts of efforts to alleviate starvation; nonetheless, it is a strategically vital area.
The Horn takes its name from its shape, a protruding promontory separating the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean and including the vital Strait of Bab al-Mandab at the southern end of the Red Sea--alone among the world's major sea-lane choke points in having a pro-Soviet state on either side of the strait. In wartime the Horn is the only spot where Soviet naval forces could easily block the critical line of supply from the Persian Gulf to Europe. With the exception of Djibouti (which does have troubles), each of the Horn's major countries is torn by internal strife. The insurgent movements of southern Sudan; of Eritrea, Tigre, and elsewhere in Ethiopia; and northern Somalia are waging war for greater autonomy or independence from their central governments. These insurgencies interlock with rival neighboring countries often backing each other's insurgent opponents. In both Ethiopia and Sudan, relief convoys seeking to prevent starvation have been attacked by insurgent groups.
Recent years have seen superpower efforts to defuse the potential for explosion in the Horn, but here, unlike most parts of the world, the superpowers have little leverage against the insurgencies plaguing the area. The Soviets, for example, have reportedly told their Ethiopian allies that continued intransigence on the Eritrean separatist issue is counterproductive. So far the results have been hard to discern, though the May coup attempt against the Ethiopian government was led by troops opposed to continuing the Eritrean war. The United States also seeks to defuse troubles in the Horn; it has passed for peace talks in the Sudan and quietly pressured Somalia against using U.S. military equipment to put down last year's northern uprising.
The Horn traditionally includes Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti (which, with its French garrison and seaport, is relatively stable and
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