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Stopping Missile Proliferation
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16546 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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11 / 1989 |
2,484 Words |
| Author
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Seth Carus
Seth Carus is a fellow at the Naval War College Foundation, on
leave from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. |
Despite the recent reductions in tension between the United States and the Soviet Union, the world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place. At the same time that the two superpowers are reaching accommodations, weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them are spreading through the Third World at an alarming rate.
Increasingly, the weapon of choice for delivering nuclear and chemical warheads is the ballistic missile. At one time, only the superpowers possessed such weapons; lesser countries lacked the technical expertise and resources to build them. Today, however, countries in all parts of the world are not only acquiring ballistic missiles but also designing and building them. At least 20 Third World countries either possess ballistic missiles or are attempting to acquire them.
Ballistic missiles in the hands of Third World military forces already pose a danger to U.S. military bases around the world. In 1986, Libya launched at least two Soviet-supplied Scud-B missiles at U.S. facilities on the Italian island of Lampedusa. Fortunately, the missiles landed in the sea, and no damage was done. In the previous year, U.S. military forces operating in Lebanon were vulnerable to Syrian missiles, a source of considerable concern to the U.S. Department of Defense. North Korea currently has Scud-B missiles aimed at U.S. bases in South Korea, and in the future other facilities in Japan and the Mediterranean might be threatened.
In addition, some of our allies are vulnerable to missile attacks. Almost all of South Korea is within range of North Korea's Scud-Bs. Israel is threatened by missiles located in Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, should Libya acquire a missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers, it will be able to hit not only Israel but also Egypt, Italy, Greece, and Turkey. Indeed, Rome itself would be threatened by such a missile in the hands of the Libyans. If armed with chemical warheads, such weapons could kill thousands of unprotected civilians in the crowded confines of Italy's largest city.
Eventually, however, even the United States may become vulnerable to Third World ballistic missiles that can reach the United States. Cuba has FROG-7 rockets, but they have a range of only 70 kilometers and cannot even reach Florida. By the year 2000 this immunity could disappear. Countries in Central or South America might be able to buy long-rage ballistic missiles, possibly armed with chemical or even nuclear
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