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The Nuclear Deterrence Dilemma: In Search of a Way Out
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16191 |
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Section : |
MODERN THOUGHT
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| Issue
Date : |
6 / 1989 |
4,372 Words |
| Author
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Enrico Jacchia
Enrico Jacchia is director of the Rome Center for Strategic
Studies at Free University in Rome, Italy. |
The debate on possible alternatives to nuclear deterrence has gone on for years in Europe, the United States and, in fact, the entire world. In Europe, it has been particularly lively among the opinion movements (the peace movements, the Greens, etc.) and religious groups. All parties have emphasized the immorality of nuclear deterrence and have searched for alternative solutions.
One alternative near to the heart of many dedicated "peacelovers" is disarmament. Nonnuclear deterrence has also been advocated as a less immoral way of guaranteeing the security of states and the survival of humanity. More recently, the concept of defense dominance has attracted an increasingly larger audience among scholars, analysts, and the general public.
Disarmament is a dream pursued once upon a time by saints and martyrs and shared today by optimists and dreamers. Nonnuclear defense appears to be, unfortunately, a similarly unrealistic concept. Everyone knows that nuclear weapons are no longer monopolized by the five militarily nuclear countries. At least three other nations, India, Israel, and South Africa, reputedly have atomic arsenals. A number of other countries are seriously considering nuclear weapons programs. These nations are customarily known as nuclear threshold states. This situation of rampant proliferation, which is in my opinion of importance with respect to the fundamental issue we are discussing, will be described at greater length in the following section of this paper.
In fact, the choice is not between opting for nonnuclear defense or disarmament. It seems to me that we have no such alternative: We have a problem. Will the community of nations succeed in keeping the rapidly sinking Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty afloat? Will our generation succeed in convincing those nations that dream of "going nuclear" of the wrongness of their course? Will we succeed in convincing the more nationalistic heads of governments, the tyrants, or revolutionary leaders that their aspirations to possess an atomic arsenal are misplaced? Will we succeed in these well-intentioned efforts, despite the fact that the French and the British insist on developing their nuclear arsenals, thus indicating to the rest of the world that being militarily nuclear is a sound and rewarding strategy?
And what about the third option, Defense dominance?
If that means creating a perfect "space shield," we know that no one still believes such a project is technically
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