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Meeting the Labor Challenge
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15637 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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2 / 1989 |
1,950 Words |
| Author
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Arnold Packer
Arnold Packer is a senior research fellow at the Hudson
Institute and coauthor of the institute's study Work Force
2000. |
The United States has less than a quarter century to upgrade its labor force. Otherwise its standard of living will decline because productivity increases will be outpaced by the increasing burden each worker will have to carry.
In 1990 the U.S. population could be represented by a broadbased pyramid: There were seven youngsters under 20 for every senior citizen over 60. In other words, the average elderly person could count on a large number of youngsters for support. As those born in the baby boom of 1946-1964 entered the labor force, the ratio of retired folks to workers was still relatively low. By 1980, however, after the "baby bust" of earlier years, the population pyramid was less steep; the ratio of youngsters to seniors was only two to one. By 2010, those born in the baby boom will begin retiring in great numbers, and every American worker will have more elderly "dependents." Before 2050, there will be more Americans over 60 than under 20.
As America ages, each worker will pay more taxes to finance Social Security and higher insurance premiums to support private benefit plans for the retired. (Harbingers of the trend can be seen in recent sharp increases in health insurance premiums as health technology and inflation combine with the new demographics.) The only way workers will be able to make those payments without reducing their own standard of living is to become more productive and earn more. They must master technology and successfully carry the American banner in international competition. Otherwise, real (inflation-adjusted) take-home pay will decline.
Are tomorrow's workers prepared to meet the challenge? A recent National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) survey of 3,600 21-25 years-olds found that only
·80 percent of whites, 60 percent of Hispanics, and 40 percent of blacks could locate two items of information in a sports article.
·65 percent of whites, 35 percent of Hispanics, and 20 percent of blacks could follow directions to travel from one location to another using a map.
·80 percent of whites, 60 percent of Hispanics, and 40 percent of blacks could enter and calculate a checkbook balance.
Between 1986 and 2000, more than 55 percent of the net addition to the American work force will be minorities.
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