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The Arab Moderates: Crucial to U.S. Objectives
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15636 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
2 / 1989 |
3,760 Words |
| Author
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Michael Sterner
Michael Sterner is a partner of the IRC Group, a Washington-
based international consulting firm. He was the U.S.
ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and a deputy assistant
secretary of state from 1977 to 1981. |
Last July 18 Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in a step he described as more "deadly than drinking poison," announced that Iran was agreeing to a cease-fire in its eight-year war with Iraq. For the moderate regimes of the eastern Arab world, the conflict had posed one of the most serious threats they had ever faced, and the cessation of fighting--on terms that made it clear Iran had not prevailed--caused a collective sigh of relief to go up in these capitals.
The threat posed by the conflict was not merely one of armed aggression against the territories and economic lifelines of the Persian Gulf states. The greater threat--and one extending to a wider arc of Arab states--was that an Iranian victory would have changed the balance of power in the Gulf region and given new impetus to Islamic extremist movements throughout the Middle East.
The outcome of the war has been a vindication of the steadfastness of the Gulf Arab states, of U.S. policy toward this regional conflict, and of collaboration between the Arab moderates and the United States to protect shared interests. It has given the Gulf Arabs greater confidence in the loyalty of their diverse populations, and it has stripped away some of the mythology of the past--for example, the belief that the governments of the Gulf would face serious internal repercussions if they permitted a U.S. military presence on their shores or in their territorial waters. More broadly, it has given the moderate and pro-Western Arab regimes breathing space to tackle pressing economic and political problems at home. They now can do so, facing an external environment that poses fewer immediate threats but that will still be complex and challenging.
New Balance Of Power
It remains to be seen how durable the Iran-Iraq cease-fire will prove to be. In the months that have elapsed since the cease-fire, there has been very little progress in resolving any of the underlying issues through negotiation. For the time being, however, a deliberate decision to resume hostilities does not appear to be a realistic option for either side. Both Iraq and Iran were exhausted by the war, and while this may be more immediately apparent in Iran, the genuine outpouring of relief in Iraq when the cease-fire was announced makes it clear that a decision to resume fighting would be politically unpopular even if the leadership in Baghdad should want to take it.
But from every initial indication, the negotiations are likely to
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