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Saving Latin America From the 'Black Hole'
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15288 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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8 / 1989 |
2,879 Words |
| Author
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Howard J. Wiarda
Howard J. Wiarda is professor of political science at the
University of Massachusetts at Amherst, professor national
security studies at the National Defense University, and
visiting scholar at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS). He was lead consultant to the National
Bipartisan (Kissinger) Commission on Central America and is
the author of Rift and Revolution: The Central American
Imbroglio and The Democratic Revolution in Latin America. |
Latin America is in very deep trouble. And when Latin America is in deep trouble it means that U.S. policy there will soon be in very deep trouble as well. It will not do for the United States to try to ignore the region or its problems as if they did not exist; our recent historical experiences with the area should have taught us the peril of failing to pay it sufficient attention. "Benign neglect" is no longer adequate as a basis for policy; as in Cuba in the 1950s and Central America in the 1970s, benign neglect allows small problems to fester into larger ones and produces disasters for U.S. foreign policy.
Latin America's current problems are profound, deep-rooted, and structural; they will not be easily resolved, and certainly not by a single presidential message or some new sleight of hand between Congress and the Department of State. Rather, they require deep thought, a multifaceted strategy, and a long-term, sustained commitment by the United States to the area.
The crisis in Latin America is economic, social, and political. Economically, the region has experienced no, little, or retrogressive growth during the entire decade of the 1980s; and the situation is not getting any better. There is almost no capital going into the area from any source; and the little capital that is there, both foreign and domestic, is rapidly fleeing. Without capital, of course, there can be no development, and negative-sum game--that is, for every winner there will have to be a loser, or else everyone will turn out to be a loser.
Socially, the conditions in the region are getting worse. Hunger, disease, frustration, and hopelessness are all spreading. Social gaps are widening, inflation and austerity measures are devastating the middle and lower classes, and living standards are falling. The depressed and depressing conditions have come at precisely the time when modern communications and the openings to democracy that have been so heartening in the area in the last decade have significantly raised popular expectations. Those are precisely the conditions--raised expectations at a time of declining living standards--that Crane Brinton and a host of experts have emphasized as the cause of revolutionary upheaval. Recent riots in the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Venezuela, and now Argentina have provided us with a foretaste of what is to come.
Politically, Latin America is again fragmenting and polarizing. The euphoria for democracy has passed. The prudent and pragmatic presidents (for the most part) who were in power in the 1980s
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