The Middle East is rife with contradictions and ironies, as is evident in the recent purchases of arms by Arab states in the Persian Gulf. Since the start of the Iran-Iraq War in 1980, a primary justification for arms purchases by countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was their need to protect themselves against the Iranians. Yet, just as the Gulf War appears to be drawing to a close, they have embarked on another massive round of weapons buying. In the past six months, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have sought to buy arms worth nearly double all the orders placed by Iran since 1980. The Kuwait is entered into arms deals with the United States and the Soviet Union worth more than $2 billion. For their part, the Saudis entered into an agreement with Britain worth at least $18 billion, and it was discovered that they had placed a $3 billion order for DF-3A intermediate-range ballistic missiles with China. It is expected that both countries will enter into additional agreements in the next year.
For Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the end of the Iran-Iraq War does not presage a period of stability and security. On the contrary, the threats to their security are likely to increase, and their perceived need for weapons is going to grow. Recent events suggest that the United States will not be the sole major source of these weapons. Nevertheless, both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia want to buy additional arms from the Americans, if only for political motives.
Should the Gulf War come to an end under current conditions, the most powerful state in the region is going to be Iraq. The Iraqis currently have the strongest military forces in the Persian Gulf. Their ground forces have a million men under arms, organized into 40 divisions armed with 5,000 tanks and 3,000 artillery pieces. The Iraqi air force has more than 500 combat aircraft equipped with highly sophisticated Soviet and French munitions, including laser-guided missiles. Even after the Iraqis demobilize, which is not likely to happen for some time, they will remain the most powerful armed forces in the Persian Gulf area.
Iraq unchallenged
Before Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, the United States and Saudi Arabia viewed Iraq as a serious danger. Unfortunately, Washington lost sight of the potential long-term danger posed to U.S. interests by resurgent Iraq and began basing its policies on a single-minded anti-Iranian strategy. Should Baghdad successfully destroy, Iran's fighting capacity, there will be no other country in the region to balance the Iraqis.
Events have been moving so fast, however, that Western arms sales to the region are still predicated on the mistaken notion that
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