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The Untouchable Congress
| Article
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14720 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
11 / 1988 |
3,339 Words |
| Author
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Susan D. Sullivan
Susan D. Sullivan is a fellow at Georgetown University and
teaches politics at the National Cathedral School in
Washington, D.C. |
As the Reagan era draws to a close and the outcome of the presidential election reverts to a worthwhile subject of speculation, political observers are conspicuously quiet. Two months shy of Election Day, public opinion polls showed George Bush and Michael Dukakis in a virtual dead heat among the voters, and the press, pundits, and professors—not usually known for being timid—insisted that the contest was simply "too close to call." The outcomes of most of the other 468 campaigns for federal office, however, pose little problem even for amateur predictors. The 101st Congress will likely bear a striking resemblance to the 100th, as incumbents will be overwhelmingly returned for another term.
Ironically, as columnist David S. Broder recently pointed out, "The part of the federal government which the Founders intended to be the most sensitive to shifts in political climate has instead become the most immune to change." The further entrenchment of incumbents is attributable to several causes including favorable partisan redistricting, the advantages of "perks" such as staff, broadcasting studios, and franked mail, greater success in attracting political action committee (PAC) contributions, and the decline of party voting in the electorate.
That incumbents are faring better and better is hardly news; what is remarkable is how dramatically competitiveness in congressional elections has declined. "Throwing the rascals out" has become the exception rather than the rule, almost regardless of personal scandal, poor record, partisan affiliation, or even presidential preference. In the 1986 elections, a staggering 98 percent of House incumbents seeking reelection won. Despite the higher turnout expected in 1988, that figure will likely remain about the same.
By definition, the "incumbency advantage" benefits the Democratic Party, which currently enjoys a 255-seat majority to the Republicans' 177 seats in the House. (There are three vacancies.) Eliminating the "safe" seats for both parties, only a few dozen races are truly competitive, and most of those are the open ones vacated by the 11 retiring members or those 13 seeking other office. Since the beginning of the postwar period, the average swing between parties has dropped from about 45 seats to fewer than 20 in the 1980s; fewer than 10 seems a reasonable estimate in 1988. Moreover, with the notable exception of 1980, this trend seems entirely independent of the presidential vote, as table 1 illustrates. "Coattails" will account for nothing in 1988; Democrats are likely to retain their majority status in both houses of Congress whether Dukakis succeeds in his bid for the
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