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The U.S. and Iran: Where to Go Now
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14705 |
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CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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11 / 1988 |
3,101 Words |
| Author
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Barry Rubin
Barry Rubin's latest book is Modern Dictators: Third World
Coupmakers, Strongmen, and Populist Tyrants (McGraw-Hill/New
American Library). He is also author of the forthcoming
Istanbul Intrigues(McGraw-Hill). |
The aftermath of the Iran-Iraq War confronts the United States with one of the most peculiar situations in the history of its foreign policy. The Islamic Republic of Iran—a country that kidnapped 53 American diplomats for 15 months, organized and abetted terrorist acts in which scores of U.S. citizens were murdered and some dozen held hostage, and daily denounced the United States as the "Great Satan"—is hinting that it wants to make up. Well, maybe.
The Persian Gulf is the globe's main oil-producing region, containing the majority of the noncommunist world's oil reserves. It is also a highly unstable area, characterized by weak states that have undergone drastic and rapid change, brutal dictatorships, radical anti-Americanism and revolutionary Islamic fundamentalism that might become even more intense, proximity to the Soviet Union, government-backed terrorism, and a war that lasted almost eight years and caused about 1.5 million casualties. Governments have obtained and used missiles and chemical weapons, and the regional arms race is likely to continue.
Despite this gloomy prognosis, the region seems to have successfully weathered a war that destroyed so much and resolved so little. One effect the fighting did have was to make Saudi Arabia and Kuwait more dependent on U.S. protection. While these states were still reluctant to do much to help the United States defend them they did quietly increase cooperation and accept a level of direct American presence hitherto thought impossible.
Even if the fighting is over, the United States must start dealing with postwar security problems, which include.
—A threat from Iran which, even if it reduces subversion against neighbors, will probably oppose U.S. influence in the region.
—The possibility of Iranian internal instability after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death, which makes that country's future extremely unpredictable and might lead to an increase in Soviet influence.
—The chance that Iraq, believing the United States is abandoning it for an alliance with Tehran, will return to radical and pro-Soviet policies, threatening the Gulf monarchies.
—The prospect of internal instability in Saudi Arabia or other states, which could be fomented by Iran, the USSR, local Islamic fundamentalists, or some combination
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