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Demographic Perspectives of an Aging Society
| Article
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13868 |
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Section : |
MODERN THOUGHT
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| Issue
Date : |
12 / 1988 |
4,969 Words |
| Author
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Cynthia M. Taeuber
Cynthia Taeuber specializes in the demographics of the older
population for the United States Bureau of the Census. The
information used for this article draws upon publicly
available data and is not meant to reflect any official
position of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. |
Old age—most people wish to achieve it and most will. In fact, so many will get their wish that we are facing a grandparent explosion between now and the middle of the twenty-first century. Over the next six decades, Americans will experience an aging society with a much higher proportion of elderly persons but roughly the same proportion of children we have now. As a result of this demographic revolution, "every institution and all age groups, not just the elderly, will be affected." Our national image will be forced to change from that of a youthful nation to an aging one.
The idea of the aging of America is not new. In colonial times, half the population was under the age of 16. That median age of 16 has increased regularly; by 1987, it had doubled to just over 32 years. What is new is the rapid pace of aging. By 2010, the median age is expected to be almost 39 years; by 2050, at least 43 years. The number of "elderly" (persons 65 years and over) has more than doubled since 1950 (table 1), from about 12 million to nearly 30 million in 1987. The number will more than double again by the middle of the next century to at least 67 million. The "oldest old" population, those 85 years and over, is expected to be the fastest growing part of the elderly population through 2050. They number almost 3 million now and could easily grow to 16 million or more by the year 2050 (table 1).
There are two major reasons for the demographic shifts that have occurred separately but simultaneously. First, there have been changes in the proportion of young people to the rest of the population throughout our history. Second, there has been a rapid growth of the older population. How these changes in the basic demographic variables, fertility, mortality, and net immigration have affected this country's age structure will be shown below in the section, "Aging America: General Demographic Trends."
After we examine how our aging society has come about, we will discuss the current older population in terms of their geographic distribution, their longevity and health, and their social and economic characteristics. Finally, we will conclude with demographic scenarios for the future. Throughout, comments are made on the possible implications of the demographic revolution we face.
Aging America: General Demographic Trends
Fluctuations in the sizes of different age groups can have dramatic effects on our
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