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Introduction: Studies on the Decline of the Soviet Empire
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10747 |
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MODERN THOUGHT
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1 / 1986 |
489 Words |
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"We have a problem," runs a Soviet joke. "Communism is advancing all over the world. But how will we manage to wipe out the capitalist world without destroying the Soviet Union's source of credit, grain and technology?" The jest contains a bitter irony for the Soviet Union.
More than facing enormous difficulties, there is a growing feeling in both the East and West that the Soviet Union is at a turning point. Its agriculture is in disarray. The rate of its capital investment has substantially declined. All the branches of the Soviet economy are reaching stagnation. The Soviet Union depends heavily on Western loans, investment, trade agreements, grain purchases, and technology--gained by fair means or foul. Marxist-Leninist ideology is losing its credibility throughout the world. And, as a new generation is taking over the positions of leadership, there are frictions among the elites.
These problems are greatly exacerbated by the Afghanistan embroglio, not to mention the growing tensions between Russians and other Soviet-ruled nationalities in the USSR and Eastern Europe, a continuing deadlock in East-West and Sino-Soviet relations, and demographic and environmental challenges.
In August 1985, Professors World Peace Academy (PWPA) sponsored a major international conference in Geneva which attracted over 150 prominent experts to discuss the current state of the Soviet Union and the prospects for its future. It is with great appreciation to PWPA for this conference, The Fall of the Soviet Empire: Prospects for Transition to a Post Soviet World, that we publish the following papers: "The Coming Crisis in the Soviet Union" by R.V. Burks, "How the Soviet System May End" by Alexander Shtromas, and "The Situation in Afghanistan: How Much of a Threat to the Soviet State?" by Anthony Arnold.
Aleksis Rannit, an émigré poet from Estonia who had been a longtime associate of PWPA, submitted, in August 1983, the original proposal for this conference but did not live to see its fruition. He wrote:
The Soviet Union is now the last empire and one does not need to be a prophet to foresee its end, in exact accordance with the Soviets' own dogma that all empires and kingdoms are predestined to fall. We do not know when it will happen, whether by interior or exterior forces, yet the likelihood inspires many thoughts….
In the spirit of Rannit's insights,
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